Tools for noticing bias - Week 05 - 2025

Tools for noticing bias - Week 05 - 2025
Hejamadi beach (near Mangalore)

I'm still reading and annotating notes from the book "The Scout Mindset" and in one of the chapters, the authors presents tools for noticing biases. Here're a few of them in my own words:

The outsider test

Imagine you are stuck in a role for some time and you don't see the way out. Imagine yourself as an outsider – what would they do if they were to step into your shoes? The outsider will have no baggage of your context etc so he can freely choose the actions objectively (point of the book – how to be objective)l. Something similar happened with Intel a decade ago. Intel was booming but Japanese companies figured out their moat (memory chips) and that made the Intel share plummet. Andy Groove, feeling downbeat, asked his co-founder Gordon Moore this question that ended up saving Intel:

We got kicked out and the board brought in a new CEO, what do you think he would do?” Gordon answered without hesitation, “He would get us out of memories.” I stared at him, numb, then said, “Why shouldn’t you and I walk out the door, come back and do it ourselves?”

The conformity test

There's always a situation where I end up liking something that's liked by one of my archetypes. It could be a particular movie, an author, a book, a device or anything. Sometimes I would agree to a viewpoint because the person that I hold in high regard also agrees to it. However, the author suggests for some introspection by asking questions such as: If they were to change their mind tomorrow about something, will I still hold this opinion? Will I still defend it? This forces us to look deep inward and have a basis of forming an opinion. If they recommended a movie, it might be a good idea to watch it first and decide for yourself. Point is to keep interrogating your preferences so that you don't end up copying anyone else without our own views.

The status quo bias test

A British blogger was in conundrum about voting for or against Brexit. He reframed the question such that it became easier to decide: "If we weren't already part of the EU, would I think it was a good idea to vote to join?" This reminded me of Munger's mental model: Invert, always invert. To excel at a job, it might give us a fresh perspective on finding out how to get fired and not do those things instead of figuring out how to excel at the job. Probably both framing has their time and place, but this is a good tool to have at your back pocket.

Another scenario: If you got a job offer to move to a city but at the cost of getting away from your comfort zone, friends etc. Instead of asking, should I really move you should rather ask: If I were already working at this job (presumably exciting), would I be tempted to quit and move back home to be closer to my comfort zone and friends?

A word of caution

These tests aren't oracles but just tools. The important thing to realize is that reasoning changes as your motivations changes. Our mind is great but also lousy and not a great master. Recognize when its trying to fool you (it's most of the time, that's why Jerry Seinfeld thinks you need to take away its power by working out, meditating (Tim Ferris podcast) ) and act accordingly.